Fed Print Reaction

Thesis

Trades observed price reactions in the October 2026 Fed market's 25 bps increase outcomes, without forecasting economic releases.

Strategy

• Print windows: It records Yes order-book midpoints during the designated 8:25 and 8:35 ET minutes on September 30 and October 2. • One entry: It buys the indicated side once per window, subject to spread, allocation, total-spend and round-trip-cost checks. • Exits: It monitors executable sell prices each minute and liquidates before the next print and at the deadline.

Exposure

• Holds: Outcome shares — Polymarket outcome shares in the 25 bps increase Yes/No market, bought with allocated pUSD on Polygon. • Venue: Polymarket — Set up a Polymarket account and fund the session in Terminal before the first observation. • Leverage: None — It buys outcome shares with allocated funds only. • Costs: Spread and fees — Fee-inclusive buy and sell estimates come from Circuit quotes; illiquidity can delay exits or cause larger losses. • Data: clob.polymarket.com — For timestamped bid/ask books and minimum order sizes, which Circuit's SDK does not expose. • On unwind: Positions sold — It closes remaining session positions on stop.