Oil Mean Reversion

Thesis

Shorts CL and BRENTOIL on extreme upward deviations, attempting to profit off mean reversion, and runs until stopped.

Strategy

• Premium entry: Every five minutes it shorts when the midpoint is at least 5% above an average of it and the last seven 00:00 UTC closes. • Bracket exits: Gross targets are +4% and −2% of the allocation measured at entry, set as venue-held reduce-only triggers. • Fail-close: A new fill without an observed average fill price is immediately submitted for emergency closure instead of receiving guessed brackets.

Exposure

• Holds: USDC and two shorts — Allocated HyperCore USDC backing short positions in CL and BRENTOIL. • Venue: Hyperliquid — Hyperliquid oil perpetuals; funding and activation belong in Terminal. • Leverage: 3x each, about 6x total — Each market targets a 3X short, for approximately 6X combined exposure. • Costs: Fees and funding — Fees, funding, gaps and slippage can cause realized losses beyond the target, and repeated fail-closes can incur costs. • Data: Circuit — It uses only Circuit SDK data and orders. • On unwind: Positions close — Stopping closes all session positions.