BTC 5-Min 双确认板

Thesis

Follows Polymarket's late favourite in BTC 5-minute rounds, with a price model that can veto, betting the crowd is right more often than 0.70 to 0.95 implies.

Strategy

• Market picks the side: With 60 to 240 seconds left, it buys whichever side Polymarket prices higher if it really costs 0.70 to 0.95 per share with fees. • Model can veto: It skips the round when the BTC price model gives that side under 70% to win. • Hold and fixed stake: It bets $5 by default, or the largest of $3, $2, $1 that fits the price, once per round, and holds to settlement.

Exposure

• Holds: BTC Up-Down shares — At most one $5 bet per 5-minute round, otherwise pUSD dollars. • Venue: Polymarket on Polygon — Your USDC.e is turned into pUSD for betting; an imported wallet must set up its Polymarket deposit wallet first. • Leverage: None — Each bet risks only its own stake. • Costs: Polymarket fees — Taker fees are included in each $5 stake; Polygon gas is paid by the session. • Data: Circuit — Hyperliquid BTC prices and Polymarket prices, both through Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD on Polygon — Settled bets pay out automatically; an open bet settles within 5 minutes.