October Fed Momentum

Thesis

A one-shot momentum trade in October 2026's Fed 25 bps increase market, using the Wednesday September 30 decision window.

Strategy

• Entry: Buys Yes if its probability rises at least 5 cents from 8:25 to 8:35 ET, or No if Yes falls at least 5 cents. • Exits: Monitors each minute for a 9-cent gain or 5-cent decline from the reported entry price. • Deadline: Attempts to flatten at 8:20 ET on Friday October 2, before the 8:30 ET Employment Situation release.

Exposure

• Holds: Polymarket Yes or No — A $150 fees-inclusive stake that must fit the session's allocated pUSD. • Venue: Polymarket — Terminal must fund and activate an eligible Polymarket account. • Leverage: None — Buys outcome shares with allocated pUSD and never borrows. • Costs: Round-trip costs — Estimated round-trip costs plus a 1-cent uncertainty buffer must fit inside the profit target. • Data: Circuit — Uses timestamped venue history and executable quotes; the BLS calendar was read at build time, not at runtime. • On unwind: Positions closed — Stopping also closes all session positions.