BTC 5-Min Endgame

Thesis

In the last minute of each 5-minute Bitcoin up-or-down round, buy the leading side when its odds look underpriced, and collect at settlement.

Strategy

• Late entry: In the final 3 minutes, it estimates the leading side's win chance and buys if it beats the price by 5 points, up to 8 points with more time left. • Filters: Skips rounds where BTC is under 0.05% from the open, the price is outside 0.60 to 0.97, or its estimate beats the price by over 10 points. • Size and exit: Spends $5 once per round and holds each bet to settlement, collecting winnings automatically.

Exposure

• Holds: BTC up/down bets — Short-lived bets on whether Bitcoin ends each 5-minute round higher or lower, plus spare cash. • Venue: Polymarket — Trades on Polymarket from your Polygon wallet; an imported wallet must set up its Polymarket deposit wallet first. • Leverage: None — Each bet risks only the $5 it costs. • Costs: Taker fees — Polymarket charges a fee on these crypto rounds when the agent buys. • Data: Circuit — Bitcoin prices and Polymarket odds come from Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD on Polygon — Unsettled bets pay out at settlement; cash stays as pUSD.