BTC 5-Min 跟盘口

Thesis

Bets the Polymarket BTC 5-minute side that already leads late in the round wins more often than its 0.85 to 0.92 real cost implies.

Strategy

• Late leader entry: With 60 to 120 seconds left, if BTC is 0.05% or more from the round open and that side really costs 0.85 to 0.92 per share with fees, it buys it. • Hold to settlement: It keeps the shares until the round settles, collects the payout and logs a running win count and profit. • Fixed stake: It spends $5 per round, at most one bet per round.

Exposure

• Holds: BTC Up or Down shares — One $5 bet per 5-minute round at most, otherwise pUSD dollars. • Venue: Polymarket on Polygon — Your USDC.e is turned into pUSD for betting; an imported wallet must set up its Polymarket deposit wallet first. • Leverage: None — Each bet risks only its own stake. • Costs: Polymarket fees — Taker fees are included in each $5 stake; Polygon gas is paid by the session. • Data: Circuit — Hyperliquid BTC prices and Polymarket prices, both through Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD on Polygon — Settled bets pay out automatically; an open bet settles within 5 minutes.