BTC Four-Hour Trend

Thesis

Follow BTC trends in either direction using 4-hour EMA crosses, letting gains run with a tightening ATR stop.

Strategy

• Entry: Completed 4-hour EMA20/EMA50 crosses buy BTC perpetuals upward and sell them short downward, reversing on opposite crosses. • Stops: Start at 1.5 ATR(14), then tighten with a 3 ATR stop from the highest high for longs or lowest low for shorts since entry. • Sizing: Assumption: use the whole allocation for one position at 10x entry exposure, with no additions; start with at least 11 USDC.

Exposure

• Holds: BTC perpetuals and USDC — Holds one long or short BTC position, backed by the session's USDC. • Venue: Hyperliquid — Trades BTC perpetuals with USDC on HyperCore; no spot trades. • Leverage: 10x at entry — Assumption: size each new BTC position at ten times allocated USDC, without ongoing resizing. • Costs: Trading fees and funding — Pays Hyperliquid trading fees and pays or receives BTC funding. • Data: Circuit — Assumptions: Wilder ATR, close-price EMAs seeded from 100 days of history, and one-minute checks of completed UTC 4-hour bars. • On unwind: USDC — Closing BTC leaves USDC; stopping the agent alone leaves positions and resting stops in place.