Hurricane Isaias Oil Impact

Thesis

Trade Gulf oil and gas into the October 9 catalysts, with staged exposure and permanent exit protection.

Strategy

• Entries: Open half before October 9 at 6 a.m. ET with Brent at least $98; unlock the rest only on a 1% pullback from the high since launch. • Exposure: Cap gross exposure at allocation; target Brent 55%, WTI 25%, gas 10% and YES 10%, adjusting beyond 10% drift or gas funding changes. • Exits: Halve all legs at the event; storm downgrades halve fuel; Brent or allocation stops exit all permanently; fuel closes October 12 at 4 p.m. ET.

Exposure

• Holds: Oil, gas and WTI YES — Unfilled allocation stays in cash; gas halves above 0.05% hourly funding and is omitted above 0.10%, moving weight to Brent. • Venue: Hyperliquid + Polymarket — Start with Polygon pUSD; reserve 10% and route up to 90% to HyperCore once; imported Polymarket wallets need setup. • Leverage: 1x exposure ceiling — Weights measure notional exposure, never leveraged multiples of allocation; no venue margin settings are changed. • Costs: Fees, funding, bridges — Buys use actual settled pUSD after routing costs rather than repeatedly replacing bridge fees. • Data: Circuit — Uses prices, holdings, funding and landfall news; shut-ins and eastward track shifts use manual official inputs. • On unwind: USDC and pUSD — YES halves at 55 cents, exits at twice entry or a thesis break, and may remain to resolution after the fuel deadline.