NFL Long Shots

Thesis

NFL parity can lift underdogs' prices; sell rebounds and accept smaller profits as the game runs out of time.

Strategy

• Entries: Bet $5 once per NFL moneyline game below 30¢, before kickoff within seven days or in the first half, checking entry liquidity. • Exits: Sell above 60¢, or for profit above 50% at halftime, falling linearly to 0% at Q4 5:00; accept partial sales and redeem resolved games. • Timing: Check every five minutes; late profits use quoted proceeds versus recorded entry cost, with a 0% target in overtime.

Exposure

• Holds: NFL shares and pUSD — Moneyline winner shares and undeployed cash. • Venue: Polymarket on Polygon — Imported wallets need a Polymarket Deposit Wallet. • Leverage: None — Bets use allocated pUSD without borrowing. • Costs: Trading fees and gas — Polymarket trading fees and Polygon network fees. • Data: Circuit and Polymarket — Circuit prices and holdings; gamma-api.polymarket.com supplies NFL discovery and clocks, and clob.polymarket.com supplies depth and minimums absent from Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD — The platform closes prediction holdings when stopped.