ETH 5-Min 双确认版

Thesis

Follows the Polymarket favorite late in each ETH 5-minute round, betting it wins more often than its 0.65 to 0.95 real cost implies.

Strategy

• Market picks the side: With 60 to 240 seconds left, it buys whichever side Polymarket prices higher if it really costs 0.65 (adjustable) to 0.95 per share with fees. • Model can veto: It skips under a 70% model win chance; with over 180s left ETH must also be at least 0.15% from the round open. • Hold and fixed stake: It bets $5 by default, or the largest of $3, $2, $1 that fits the price, once per round, and holds to settlement.

Exposure

• Holds: ETH Up-Down shares — At most one $5 bet per 5-minute round, otherwise pUSD dollars. • Venue: Polymarket on Polygon — It starts from pUSD and bets with it; an imported wallet must set up its Polymarket deposit wallet first. • Leverage: None — Each bet risks only its own stake. • Costs: Polymarket fees — Taker fees are included in each $5 stake; Polygon gas is paid by the session. • Data: Circuit — Hyperliquid ETH prices and Polymarket prices, both through Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD on Polygon — Settled bets pay out automatically; an open bet settles within 5 minutes.