BTC Horizon Learner

Thesis

Learns from BTC 15-minute Polymarket observations and buys only when its forward-scored forecast exceeds fee-inclusive market costs.

Strategy

• Online learning: It learns only from finalized Polymarket outcomes, using Hyperliquid momentum, volatility, relative volume and market-implied probability as signals. • Entry edge: After warmup, it requires forward Brier-score improvement over market probabilities and a conservative cost-adjusted edge. • One bet at a time: It holds at most one allocation-sized bet through resolution and redeems it.

Exposure

• Holds: Polymarket BTC bets — At most one open BTC 15-minute Polymarket position, otherwise allocated pUSD; each stake can be lost in full. • Venue: Polymarket — Terminal must configure an eligible funded Polymarket account and activate the agent. • Leverage: None — Each bet is a fixed percent of allocated pUSD, set by the stake setting. • Costs: Market fees — Buys only when the forecast exceeds fee-inclusive market costs; quotes are not binding price limits. • Data: gamma-api.polymarket.com — Structured series timing, per-market minimum size, and finalized outcomes of unheld markets, which Circuit's SDK does not expose. • On unwind: Sold or redeemed — All remaining positions are sold or redeemed; stopping during market closure can fail until settlement is available.