BTC 5-Min 双确认板

Thesis

Bets the Polymarket BTC 5-minute side that already leads late in the round wins more often than its 0.70 to 0.95 real cost implies.

Strategy

• Late leader entry: With 30 to 240 seconds left, if BTC is far enough from its round open and that side really costs 0.70 to 0.95 per share with fees, it buys it. • Model and market agree: Polymarket must price that side above 0.5, and the model must beat its cost by 3 points, 8 under 0.90, and 15 under 0.85. • Hold and fixed stake: It bets $5 by default, or the largest of $3, $2, $1 that fits the price, once per round, and holds to settlement.

Exposure

• Holds: BTC Up-Down shares — At most one $5 bet per 5-minute round, otherwise pUSD dollars. • Venue: Polymarket on Polygon — Your USDC.e is turned into pUSD for betting; an imported wallet must set up its Polymarket deposit wallet first. • Leverage: None — Each bet risks only its own stake. • Costs: Polymarket fees — Taker fees are included in each $5 stake; Polygon gas is paid by the session. • Data: Circuit — Hyperliquid BTC prices and Polymarket prices, both through Circuit. • On unwind: pUSD on Polygon — Settled bets pay out automatically; an open bet settles within 5 minutes.