Isaias Oil Breakout

Thesis

Buys an oil price breakout supporting the Hurricane Isaias supply story, aiming to sell higher before Friday's close or stay in cash if no breakout occurs.

Strategy

• Entry: One hourly close above the prior 24 hours' high, Oct 8 11:00 PT to Oct 9 10:00 PT, unless weakening or invalidating news blocks entry. • Size: Uses session USDC times your chosen leverage, capped at the market maximum, with $1m median hourly volume, $50m open interest and a 5% volume limit. • Exit: Takes +4.5%, stops at -3%, tightens on storm news, closes on a Hormuz deal or undamaged restarts, and exits Oct 9 at 13:30 PT.

Exposure

• Holds: WTI or Brent and USDC — Buys xyz:CL, falling back to xyz:BRENTOIL only for missing data or failed liquidity; failed reads end that run. Manages only the filled market, never re-enters, and can remain entirely in USDC without a shut-in update. • Venue: Hyperliquid / HyperCore — Starts with at least 50 Core USDC. Circuit cannot choose isolated margin. Native stops are reduce-only, but session closes use exact-quantity opposite orders, not account-wide reduce-only. Stopping leaves positions for Terminal. • Leverage: You choose 1–20x — Set this yourself; default 1x, capped at the live maximum. A 3% stop costs about 3% of allocation at 1x, 15% at 5x or 30% at 10x before fees, gaps or slippage. Around 16x, liquidation may precede the stop; warnings do not resize. • Costs: Fees, funding, oil roll — Pays Hyperliquid fees and funding. Your supplied oracle roll estimate is about 0.2% on October 8, 2026 at 14:30 PT; Circuit does not verify that schedule. • Data: Circuit and native news — Uses candles, prices, market data, holdings and orders. Ignores old, repeated, unclear or conflicting news; corrections replace reports. No entry during the 14:00–15:00 PT break, weekends or a minute-price difference above 0.5%. • On unwind: Core USDC — Protection follows the fill update; two missing-protection runs trigger closing. Strengthening enables breakeven at +2%; weakening tightens to -1.5%. Confirms higher stops before canceling old ones; partial exits retry until flat.