Chip Supply Chain Reaction

Thesis

Micron's memory shortage lifts MU first, memory peers next and chip suppliers later; the sleeve rotates toward peers when MU runs ahead.

Strategy

• Causal allocation: Targets use session equity: MU 25%, SKHX 20%, DRAM 15%, SNDK 10%, SOXL 10%, INTC 15%; orders clip at 20%, subject to venue minimums. • Entry and rotation: Enter on an eight-weekday earnings window, a 200-basis-point MU/peer gap, or $1M open interest plus $5M daily volume; favor SKHX when MU leads. • Exit: Close third-order names first on $100 unrealized or UTC-day loss, adverse guidance or yield news, a broad MU-led reversal, or 15-day expiry.

Exposure

• Holds: Memory-chain longs — MU, SKHX, DRAM, SNDK, SOXL and INTC perpetuals plus unspent USDC; no Polymarket overlay. • Venue: Hyperliquid xyz — One wallet; names without quotes are skipped because no Robinhood Chain stock contracts were verified. • Leverage: No extra multiplier — SOXL itself targets 3x semiconductor daily returns and has a 10% sleeve target. • Costs: Trading and funding — Hyperliquid trading fees and ongoing perpetual funding; limit orders use a 1% price bound. • Data: Circuit and Micron IR — Circuit prices, activity and news; investors.micron.com supplies the pinned September 30, 2026 earnings release absent from Circuit market data. • On unwind: USDC — Perpetuals close into USDC; a loss stop blocks new opens for the rest of the UTC day.