Catalyst Scout

Thesis

Monitors economic catalysts and Polymarket for paper-only pricing-gap research, without live trading or profitability promises.

Strategy

• Evidence gate: Ambiguous or incomplete evidence cannot authorize purchases, and it waits in MODEL_NOT_READY for an explicit model and consensus integration. • Paper entries: Simulations require later, fresh depth after a delay and use a session-local virtual portfolio. • Paper exits: It exits on expired or invalidated forecasts, nonpositive holding benefit, loss limits or the holding deadline.

Exposure

• Holds: Virtual portfolio — A session-local virtual portfolio; it is not a live trading agent. • Venue: None (paper only) — Live Polymarket execution is unavailable because the market-order interface cannot bind execution-price protection. • Leverage: None — Paper research only; no real funds are traded. • Costs: None — No live trades; liquidity, fees and missing data affect only simulated returns. • Data: Official calendars — www.bls.gov, www.bea.gov and www.federalreserve.gov for releases Circuit lacks; clob and gamma-api.polymarket.com for depth and fees. • On unwind: Nothing to close — Virtual stop exits remain explicitly outstanding rather than being filled fictitiously.