Warm Winter Gas Short

Thesis

Short US natural gas when warmer forecasts and comfortable storage meet falling prices, aiming to profit from weaker heating demand.

Strategy

• Entry: Qualifying weather and storage news enables hourly shorts when NATGAS breaks below the previous three completed daily lows. • Exit: Close on colder or tighter-supply news; place a closing stop 0.1% above the three-day high at entry. • Size: Use allocated USDC for one 1x short, raised to the venue minimum when necessary, and repeat when the entry conditions return.

Exposure

• Holds: NATGAS short and USDC — Holds one US natural-gas perpetual short with USDC collateral. • Venue: Hyperliquid — Trades the Trade.xyz NATGAS market with funds on HyperCore. • Leverage: 1x target — Sizes the short to allocated USDC, subject to the venue's minimum order. • Costs: Trading fees and funding — Pays Hyperliquid trading fees and the market's periodic funding payments. • Data: Circuit — Uses gas prices, daily candles and qualifying news; headline and summary wording identifies reversal reports. • On unwind: USDC — Closing the short leaves its remaining collateral and trading result in USDC.